2025 NBA Mock Draft: Data-Driven Lottery Preview
A statistical look at each lottery team's biggest needs and potential draft targets.
STATANGLE Team
The NBA season has concluded and we're here for one of the biggest NBA drafts in recent memories. Whether you believe the actual lottery resultes were rigged or not, the landscape of the NBA will be reshaped after this draft. Will the East become stronger or with the Mavericks and Spurs in the top two spots continue the lopsided nature of the conferences? Let's take a look at how we think this will shake out -- with a keen eye toward a data-driven approach for making picks. This isn't necessarily how things will play out, but gives a glimpse into how filling gaps can be the best strategy for drafting in 2025.
Methodology
We analyzed each lottery team's 2024-25 season stats to identify their most pressing needs. While the draft is always unpredictable, understanding these statistical gaps gives us a strong sense of what each team might prioritize on draft night.
Dallas Mavericks
Team Needs
Wing defense, rebounding, bench depth
A defensive wing with rebounding ability would help Dallas on both ends.
Key Stats
21st in defensive rating, 23rd in rebounds per game
THE PICK:
Cooper Flagg
San Antonio Spurs
Team Needs
Point guard, shooting, perimeter defense
A floor general who can shoot and defend would complement the Spurs' young core, however, this team isn't too flawed.
Key Stats
19th in offensive rating, 25th in defensive rating, 26th in defensive rebound percentage
THE PICK:
Dylan Harper
Philadelphia 76ers
Team Needs
Wing depth, shooting, on-ball defense
A 3-and-D wing would give Philly much-needed versatility on the perimeter.
Key Stats
25th in bench points, 27th in 3PT%, 26th in defensive rating
THE PICK:
VJ Edgecombe
Charlotte Hornets
Team Needs
Perimeter shooting, defense, secondary playmaker
A two-way swing who can shoot and defend would help Charlotte on both ends.
Key Stats
28th in 3PT%, 29th in defensive rating
THE PICK:
Tre Johnson
Utah Jazz
Team Needs
Scoring wing, rim protection, playmaking guard
A versatile forward who can defend and create his own shot would fill multiple gaps for Utah.
Key Stats
Ranked 30th in defensive rating, 22nd in 3PT%, 21st in assists per game
THE PICK:
Ace Bailey
Washington Wizards
Team Needs
Interior defense, rebounding, shot creation
A big man with rim protection and rebounding skills is a natural fit for the Wizards' frontcourt.
Key Stats
Last in offensive rating, 27th in points allowed per game
THE PICK:
Khaman Maluach
New Orleans Pelicans
Team Needs
Point guard, perimeter defense, shooting
A lead guard with vision and defensive chops could elevate the Pelicans' backcourt.
Key Stats
19th in assists, 22nd in opponent 3PT%
THE PICK:
Kon Knueppel
Brooklyn Nets
Team Needs
Interior scoring, rim protection, playmaking
A skilled big who can score inside and protect the rim fits Brooklyn's needs.
Key Stats
27th in points in the paint, 27th in blocks
THE PICK:
Thomas Sorber
Toronto Raptors
Team Needs
Defense, shooting, backup center
A defensive-minded forward with shooting upside would help Toronto's rotation.
Key Stats
28th in blocks, 24th in defensive rebound percentage, 25th in offensive rating
THE PICK:
Carter Bryant
Phoenix Suns
Team Needs
Defense, any center, shooting
After trading away Kevin Durant, a backup big who can defend and stretch the floor fits Phoenix's needs.
Key Stats
28th in defensive rating, 25th in rebounds
THE PICK:
Derik Queen
Portland Trail Blazers
Team Needs
Playmaking, shooting, rim protection
A creative guard who can shoot and facilitate would boost Portland's offense.
Key Stats
27th in assists, 26th in 3PT%
THE PICK:
Jeremy Fears
Chicago Bulls
Team Needs
Point guard, shooting, rim protection
A swing who can shoot and defend would address Chicago's biggest holes.
Key Stats
19th in defensive rating, 23rd in steals, 18th in blocks
THE PICK:
Collin Murray-Boyles
Atlanta Hawks
Team Needs
Perimeter defense, shooting, playmaking
A two-way big who can shoot and defend would help Atlanta's rotation.
Key Stats
18th in offensive rating, 19th in defensive rating
THE PICK:
Danny Wolf
San Antonio Spurs
Team Needs
Point guard, shooting, perimeter defense
A floor general who can shoot and defend would complement the Spurs' young core, however, this team isn't too flawed.
Key Stats
19th in offensive rating, 25th in defensive rating, 26th in defensive rebound percentage
THE PICK:
Liam McNeeley
We'll be back after the draft with our draft grades to see who statistically were the biggest steals and reaches.